We’re told that since 2019 there’s been a dramatic rise in the number of working-age people being signed off work, tens of thousands more every year, driven largely by stress, anxiety, depression, and young people struggling to make the jump from education into employment.

Now look, I’m not dismissing mental health. It’s real, it matters, and anyone who’s been through it knows it can knock you sideways. But here’s the question no one seems willing to ask, what suddenly changed in 2019? Because last time I checked, the modern world didn’t start then.

People had stressful jobs in the 80s, 90s and 2000s. They worried about money, relationships, job security, all the same pressures we hear about today. Yet somehow, we’re now told those same pressures are now stopping 40% more people from working. That doesn’t pass the common-sense test. So what’s really going on?

Part of it is cultural. We’ve gone from a society that encouraged resilience to one that increasingly validates withdrawal. If you feel overwhelmed, the system’s first instinct isn’t to support you back into work, it’s to sign you off. And once you’re out, it’s a lot harder to get back in.

Then there’s the transition problem. More young people are leaving education without a clear path into employment. They’ve been sold a dream, go to uni, everything will be fine, and when reality hits, they’re left drifting. No skills, no direction, no confidence. That’s not a mental health crisis, that’s a system failure.

But here’s another uncomfortable thought, and it might sound blunt, but it needs saying. Historically, illness spread through populations via air, water, or contact. You caught something, you passed it on. Now we’re told we’ve got a mental health epidemic. Fine. But epidemics don’t just appear out of nowhere, they spread.

And today, we live in a world where everything is shared instantly. One person talks about struggling, then another, then another, and before long it becomes the dominant narrative. You start to hear, “They’re stressed. They’re anxious. They can’t cope.”

And the natural reaction becomes, “Well hang on, I’ve got the same pressures, so maybe I can’t cope either.”

That’s not to say people are making it up, not in the conventional sense anyway. But mindsets can spread just like behaviours do. Expectations shift. The threshold for what stops you working moves.

Meanwhile, businesses are crying out for workers. Trades are short-staffed. Construction can’t build. The NHS can’t recruit fast enough. And yet we’ve got a growing chunk of the population sitting on the sidelines. It’s madness.

We need to get real about this. Support people, yes, but also expect something in return. Help them into work, not away from it. Fix the pipeline from school to job. And stop pretending this is all about conditions that have existed for decades but somehow only now stop people working.

Because if we don’t, we’re not just failing individuals, we’re holding the whole country back.